Klimax
TBH, I'm totally amazed HK has stayed the way it has for as long as it has! Anyone who could believe in the "deal" struck with China at the handover really wasn't looking at China with any realism. It's a bit like striking a "deal" with Russia - or Iran - or..........! Even so-called "allies" can prove fickle - it's called politics and nationalism!
Any major power change anywhere where you radically change the style of Government will lead to changes, particularly grafting a city of 7.4M having enjoyed one political system onto a country of 1443.9M with a totally different system - irrespective of any accords, agreements, deals etc. History is littered with changes that "surprised" the West when things turned out differently when, in fact, the writing was on the wall from before the changes took place. HK is no different. But the West is always surprised!
HK won't die - but it sure will change. I share Sam Ting Wongs' views - based on having 2 step-sons who worked in Beijing for a number of years, married local girls (their Mum did go a bit "ape" when that happened - until she got over herself and actually met the girls!) and one is now back in London but very much still linked to China with work and may head back that way. Will HK be like it was just after the transition? No - and no surprise at all. It will be Chinese and will take its place along with all other Cities in China and China itself will jostle for position in the World Order along with all the rest of us. I'll not see how that pans out over the next 50 years ..... not unless I come back from the other side to haunt the kids that is!
As STW says, "Whether expats will be or want to be a part of [the new HK] is a different story.". My kids got on really well - but they knew to play by the local rules and accepted that they will forever be "outsiders" - but have been equally stunned by the genuine hospitality and friendship they have met in China over the years.