I can foresee a scenario (one of a few different ones though) that all A330s will be up and going by the end of 2021.
If that’s the case we are at least 57 Captains short on that fleet. If the mooted route structure comes off then we’ll be short by an additional margin of about 10-15% on top of that again so call it 65 in round numbers.
The 787 has enough Captains to cover 11 airframes. Any additional airframes coming and they’re short of crew too.
The 747 has less than 10 Captains left to RIN.
The A380 has about 45 Captains left. Some A380s I reckon will be flying from about March ‘22- probably enough that they’ll need a few additional Captains on that aeroplane too. Perhaps 20 or so.
F/O numbers are a bit harder to predict with the A380 still largely at full strength (for 12 jets), the 787 with the right numbers for about 12, A330 with about the right numbers to cover all aircraft (if we train those who were scheduled to come onto the jet just as Covid hit), and about 35 747 F/Os to deal with.
Anyway, that’s my take on the numbers.
Exactly Keg!
57-65 Captains. That training load alone is frightening. The 787 crewing issue also is alarming. Don’t forget the additional airframes parked in the desert. What about numbers for them? The 787 will be very much in demand in the second half. At least QF have all those options!