Xulu
As much as i would like all this to come true, i guess it looks somewhat optimistic. We love optimistic outlooks, but when i read your statement ...
As I said previously, if EK were smart, next year they would get a headstart on things by getting pilots back onto an UPL status to replace those called to line - process visas, medical, induction, uniform etc. Get the trainers current again and a short rejoiner course approved by GCAA.
... I really can't see too many pilots coming back into an UPL, especially not those with families. After the experience of this year, the trust in EK is no longer there. Even as many say, a lot will do anything to get bread on the table, UPL does not really do that and relocating again works almost only for singles.
There are other forecasts that are somewhat less optimistic and frankly, if it was to go back to the ME, I'd consider them as much as putting my hopes on yours.
https://www.eurocontrol.int/publicat...cast-2020-2024
Just an excerpt:
“Even in the most positive scenario, we do not expect a recovery to 2019 levels before 2024. There is a very real prospect that this recovery could take even longer, perhaps to as far out as 2029. This is a catastrophic picture for the aviation industry and shows clearly why it is so important for States to take consistent and coherent measures to support the aviation industry and make passengers feel safe to fly again.”
and:
"The forecast is based on three headline scenarios,
- Scenario 1 – Vaccine Summer 2021
Vaccine widely made available for travellers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2021, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2024.
- Scenario 2 – Vaccine Summer 2022
Vaccine widely made available for travellers (or end of pandemic) by Summer 2022, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2026.
- Scenario 3 – Vaccine not effective
Lingering infection and low passenger confidence, with traffic only returning to 2019 levels by 2029."