Air Travel WILL COME BACK in a big way... Not overnight but it will.
Agreed, IATA expect long haul travel to recover in 2024. Initially there will be a big surge when restrictions are lifted and pent up demand can be catered to, after that it will tail off into the new normal and a gradual recovery.
EK are in a unique position with the A380, being by far the largest operator and having the largest selection of possible routes for it. If they can't make money with it then no one can. However other airlines which have a handful of A380s making up a small percentage of their fleets are retiring them. The only other significant operator, SQ, is downsizing the fleet but will be refitting the cabins. A merged Korean Air/Asiana will probably retain them. The A380 will fly again but with a handful of operators in fewer numbers.
The question is "How many A380s can EK operate in the short to medium term while the industry recovers,and will it need the entire fleet again in 2024 ?" In 4 years time EK could have them all back in the air and be 1 of the few airlines with the type. Unfortunately COVID exposed the vulnerability of relying too much on long haul premium transit traffic, using large aircraft. Other hub airlines such as QR, TK, ET, SQ etc have smaller aircraft types which allow greater flexibility in destinations and frequencies.
EK could choose to reduce the A380 fleet if the recovery isn't as strong as predicted. Swapping B777-X orders for B787-9 was a good move. Narrow bodies would also be worth considering as they open up destinations which can't support the B777, and allow gradual increases in capacity and frequency on routes. FlyDubai isn't an equivalent product so the aircraft need to be EK operated.
After the pandemic, airlines will be looked at in detail to see how they performed during the crisis and changes could well be made where deficiencies are noted.