Originally Posted by
aviation_enthus
I think you’re probably right!!
I’ve been thinking something similar. All the pilots being made redundant now, may be facing upto 2 years before any significant hiring starts again. A large number of those pilots will either retire or find another career. How many will change back to an airline gig when the music starts again? My guess would be not many.
So this will result in a large chunk of experience vanishing from the industry. When hiring starts again, it won’t take long to “pick up the slack” and run out of qualified pilots to move up.
Combined this with the view that now is NOT the time to start training, you’ll also have a lack of fresh CPL drivers coming through at the bottom. So again, when hiring starts, qualified pilots will be picked up pretty quick.
For perspective, the US domestic market took 3 years to recover after 9/11. That was also only a 30% drop. So a 4-5 year timeframe to see a recovery back to 2019 levels isn’t unreasonable, especially in international travel.
I fully endorse your view. Even if there's no shortage of CPL holders with undefined experience, a shortage of experienced candidates is enough to put the boot on the other foot once again. By my most avant-garde estimates, producing a quality Captain takes a bare minimum of 7-8 years (initial training - 2 years, FO experience - 4-5 years, another year or two of command experience to settle in and actually find your feet in that LHS). Producing a line trainer thus takes at least 10 years, zero to hero.
The question is, who's going to fill that void if the top part of the list gets shaved off by early retirement, those in the lower half walk away from flying in large numbers and new entrants put their training plans on hold and potentially bin them while waiting for a complete recovery?
Back on the subject of training - cadetships will likely not be a thing for a couple of years as the last thing on the mind of a financially troubled airline is long-term strategic investment. But those who left high school this summer or are about to next summer have some seriously good prospects if they play their cards wisely. Go to uni - that's 3-4 years spent in a quality way. Do as much as you can of your CPL in the meantime. Before you know it, it's 2025 out there, you hold a degree and a CPL and the doors are open everywhere. You're fully equipped with a licence and a substantial backup qualification. And you're far better positioned than those who will barely start training in 5 or 7 years.