Originally Posted by
Sam Ting Wong
I don't agree with the predictions of most in here, for what it's worth.
The usual pattern of catastrophizing... Since years always the same guys predict armageddon, usually something like the imminent fall of arapa, closure of all the bases, new contracts for all etc.
In the end it never happened, and I say it won't this time either.
Worst case, temporary cuts and layoffs in seniority order.
The reason that base closures, new contracts, permanent reduction in workforce, etc, didn't happen in past is because all previous "ups an downs" were based on global events causing cyclical changes. Covid-19 is another one of those - though more devastating and longer lasting than most others. But... the real (not so hidden) dragon that is causing -- and will continue to cause -- former globally significant Hong Kong based companies to shrivel and sputter and eventually collapse, is not Covid. It's simply because PRC has decided that "Special Status" is no more. If you think most non-Chinese nationals who formerly chose to fly to or via HKG for business or pleasure will continue to do so, post Covid, you haven't been paying attention to the change in attitudes -- the anger, but more importantly the fear -- of Americans, Europeans, Aussies, Canadians, etc And that change in comfort level isn't going to be temporary, unless you believe that China's new attitude toward Hong Kong, and increased international bullying, is temporary. If so, I have an apartment in Happy Valley I'll sell you. .