PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - L3 VS CAE VS Leading Edge vs FTA- What is the best choice 2021?
Old 23rd Sep 2020, 11:56
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Bealzebub
 
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I have always tended to offer advice or information based on historical precedent rather than future predictions. If I was particularly talented at the latter I would have hoped to be much richer than I currently am. That said, I have two children who are also police officers and although not always the case, they currently give me less cause for worry than those in aviation. Interestingly, the police has long been a source of recruits transferring their careers. That may be just coincidence, but nevertheless it’s an observation.

Ordinarily, I would suggest looking at those programmes that have traditionally dovetailed into airline cadet programmes. If you look back over my previous posting history you can see what I thought the best courses of action were and the reasons why. Plenty of people took issue with some of those postings and again you can read the reasons why.

This year the world has been turned on its head. Aviation has been decimated by these events, perhaps more so than any other industry. I believe that we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg at the moment and the real damage is going to come in the next few years. The intensive care measures that are being applied to the economy are eventually going to subside, and there are likely to be a lot of casualties as a result. Even (as it eventually will) The economies recover, it will take a long time for this industry to get back to anywhere near where it was at the beginning of this year. There are plenty of pundits who are very well qualified in these matters, suggesting figures of anything up to a decade. Plenty of people (me included) are hoping that we muddle through the immediate future and everything will go back to “normal” at some point. Recovery is likely to be relatively slow and painful. There are literally Tens of thousands of experienced and very experienced pilots who have been made redundant or threatened with the imminent prospect of same.

Weak demand and strong supply is also going to have a decimating effect on remuneration well into the future for those pilots who do keep their jobs. I have no particular insight, but wouldn’t be at all surprised to see average weighted earnings in a couple of years at half (or less) where they are today, and that being applicable across the board. I also think it is going to be a long time before airlines see any real need to recruit new trainee (cadet) pilots. Perhaps ironically, when they do, it is likely to be even more focussed on full time integrated programmes based entirely on the prospective cadets own financial risk!

However, and going back to your question, I cannot see demand in that sector existing in realistic terms for a significant period of time? The pilot training industry (across all markets) is likely going to suffer every bit as much as the airline sector. There will be many failures, consolidations, and changes in this sector as a result. Just as with remuneration, supply and demand market forces are likely to put a great deal of stress on pricing in the training industry, and a result you will likely see pricing come down substantially.

At 27 you have done extremely well to find yourself in the fiscal position you have, but I would have to say be very cautious indeed before embarking on the change you obviously now feel able to do. There are always enormous risks even in good times, but I see very little reason for an optimistic upturn in the near term future. Yes, there will certainly be an upturn at some point, but reabsorbing the huge numbers of available and experienced resource is going to take many, many years beyond that point.

People have made a lot of money and had great success by bucking trends. However (just like lottery winners) very few have done so. My advice at this point would be to keep doing what you are doing. Certainly do some flying and keep a constant eye on trends. You are not going to get caught out by an upturn. As and when things do improve to a significant level, the signals (even the overly optimistic ones) will be there a good 2-3 years before the reality.
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