Originally Posted by
slats11
So median age of person who died from (? with) COVID in Australia = 82 (very similar to USA white decedents)
USA has stratified median age of death by ethnic background
81 (IQR 71-88) for white decedents
72 (IQR 62-81) for non-white, non-Hispanic decedents
71 ( IQR 59-81) for Hispanic decedents
Australian median life expectancy = 83 years (so Australian's who die from COVID are very slightly older than Australian's who die from all other causes).
Average life expectancy of an 85 year old is 6 years - so you have a 75% chance of living another 3 years, a 50% chance of living another 6, and a 25% chance of living another 10.
Put another way, the for a person aged 85, the average annual risk of death is 10% (12% male and 9% female). Yes the dataset and hence numbers are slightly different, but you get the general idea.
For comparison, the average mortality for some aged 85 getting COVID is estimated to be about 10% (this figure is a bit rubbery). So about the same risk again as you already had by virtue of being 85. However the risk of dying from COVID is expressed over a couple of weeks, while the annual risk of dying is expressed over 52 weeks.
So getting COVID aged 85
Likely doubles your risk of dying in the next 12 months (from 10 to 20%)
With most of this increase expressed over the first few weeks
COVID is not a nothing. And I don't believe anyone has suggested otherwise.
But at 85, life (i.e. being 85) is risky. An elderly relative once told me "I don't buy green bananas."
And maybe we have got this out of proportion.
How many times to we have to say it,
"ITS NOT ABOUT DYING" it's about infection and the chances of being returned to normal. The evidence thus far suggests you don't. 21 million from 8 billion is not enough to know for sure what that is along with the relatively short time frame to access long term impact of an infection.
If everyone recovered said, yeah fully restored no difference at all and there doesn't appear to be any longer term issues either, then yes, we the greater majority probably would be willing to take that risk and let it rip. Until we have those answers or a vaccine becomes available so we don't need to know those answers, we proceed with great caution. It would be foolish to do otherwise. I still wouldn't agree to it, if it meant sacrificing our medical staff as has been the case globally.