PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Is the airline sector in denial about its imminent collapse?
Old 13th Sep 2020, 10:06
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Easyheat
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
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I think you are spot on Asturias

Back in August 2014 the oil price dropped from steadily 120$/barrel to 27$ in February 15, and it has not recovered; may be never will. To be viable for the offshore industry it needs to be above 70$. The years from 2006-2014 were absolutely fantastic, That also was the fact for the rest of the suppliers, not just the helicopter companies. But a collapse in the barrel price meant a collapse in the supply chain as a whole. I see the same thing in the airline industry now, hence we need a vaccine and (almost) unrestricted rules like before March 2020. Before this happens, the airline industry and all the spill off, will suffer, and no one knows whee it ends, since time is ticking, and time is money spent, you never will be able to get back. Still after that it will take time. Government loans can not go on forever, and the industry will most probably not be able to pay it back, ever.
The GDP that the airline “produce” was until March around 3.6 % of the worlds economy, hence no one said stop, lets have a pause, is this sustainable? Should we keep on building hotels? Expand the airports? Should we stand on more than one leg (tourism), or be good at something else too? No one wanted to consolidate or build up cash for a rainy day. The party kept going like the oil and gas, and then the music stopped.

Where it ends no one knows, but it will be a completely game changer for the industry and the world as a whole.
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