Originally Posted by
BallastBob
My thinking; we are on the cusp of the biggest customer revolution the aviation industry has seen. I can not fault your analysis above at all - I think you are spot on. My only point is regarding business class customers and the fact that much commentary has been about how it will all get back to normal pretty quickly. From a business point of view there are factors that affect aviation and may well affect aviation permanently. The business community has been forced into home-working for instance and it turns out that something that could never happen is now (often, but not always) the preference of said businessman or business woman. Similarly, remote working is now proving to be less of a problem than everyone thought. (Who thought my GP (of advanced years) would be offering me telephone or face2face remote consultations? If (parts of) the behemoth that is the NHS can make the change then the comparatively agile private business sector can and will too...does anyone think GPs will go face2face-appointment first ever again, even after Covid has abated?). It (remote working) won’t entirely replace live face to face meetings but they will be minimised to the essential travel to win/retain the business. It is NOT about cost savings at its core (although short-term cost savings have to be made to retain some of those 9.6 million furloughed employees in a much shrunken economy), it is about enhanced service, time-efficiency, employees health and well-being and yes, eco-sustainability (which is increasingly a factor in winning competitive tenders by the way). There will still be a lot of travel (perhaps very cheap travel too) but aviation does not exist in a bubble and trends within other industries will have their effect. Let’s look at the alternative as you describe: Aviation goes through the wringer over the next year or so and pops out the other side ultra-efficient with tickets at super-low prices. Will the business community all start jumping on planes? Absolutely not...why would they...they are working differently now. Will we all enjoy more holidays? Quite possibly (hopefully!). What will the net effect be? Who knows? One thing for sure; back to normal can’t and should NOT be an option - the winners will be the ones who take this massive opportunity and run with it. Sure, I understand the hankering (especially if you are an employee of a large and established carrier) to go back to the good old days (of only the beginning of this year..).
Regarding business travel, none of us really know how much will be lost. There are many different reasons people travel in premium classes, they may be sportsmen, Journalists covering sporting events or any entourage. We also return people to their home country's who have medical conditions and whose insurance is covering the expense. Many different worldwide conferences (which will not go online). We carry diplomats and other government officials. Many general passengers travelling for personal reasons who wish to spend on the comfort of a premium class seat. The list goes on and on. As a result of Covid the premium class seats will become more affordable whilst many in the community will be more able to afford those seats (rightly or wrongly, some industries and shareholders have done very well).
Secondly, I believe that you were referring to the Environmentalist issues. If this is a concern to you then I agree. However, the Aviation industry is not the place to start, it is the place to finish.To many it is the easiest polluter to attack because it doesn't effect the lives of the majority of activists in the environmental lobby. In reality people do want to travel, they always have and they always will, it brings people together and makes for a more peaceful world. The reason for not starting with Aviation is that the technology does not YET exist to run Aircraft completely emission free but progress toward that goal is being made very rapidly, aircraft are a full 5 times more efficient than they were 50 years ago. In the meantime it would be sensible to target emissions from Cars, Electrical power Generation, and Factories where the technology does already exist to eliminate emissions. The 2-4% generated by Aircraft will be gone within the next 30 years.