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Old 2nd Sep 2020, 12:00
  #57 (permalink)  
polax52
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: california
Age: 66
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BallastBob

Reading your posts, I don't really understand what you're thinking. Do you think that the number of Aeroplanes flying will be reduced in the years after Covid is eliminated? or do you think that business class travel will be reduced?

If you're thinking that the number of Aeroplanes flying will be reduced then I'd say that you're believing what the Saudi's believed regarding US oil in 2015. They seemed to think that if you put the fracking companies out of business, the oil would stop coming out of the ground. That is of course not true.

The same applies here, you have 10,000 plus Aeroplanes, less than 10 years old, worth between $100m and $300m, sitting on the ground. While the companies which have been operating these Aircraft may well become insolvent and creditors may well take control. Leasing companies may take their aircraft back. These Assets are worth $0 to anyone if they're not flying. Therefore the value of the assets will be written off down to the level that gets them flying again. 50%-60% of your Airline ticket price is the capital cost of the aircraft. Throw in a few years of cheap fuel and cheap crews, as soon as travel becomes legal again and fear is removed,your ticket from London to Sydney will be cheaper than your national express bus from Newcastle to Heathrow. The flights will be full. Maybe the Business travellers will be fewer?
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