HOLD ON TO YOUR UNDERPANTS !!

[Numero Crunchero]

exfocx

Originally Posted by Numero Crunchero View Post

The initial reaction to covid was probably the right one(let history decide) - the ongoing reaction is an economic own goal - a stupendous achievement in self destruction for no good reason.

Population of earth - 7.6billion. Average life expectancy - just over 72 years. So mathematically speaking about 105million people die per year(if population was evenly distributed by age - it is not- real figure is lower). So about 50-60m people have died from all causes so far this year. Covid has killed 800K or about 1.6%. From a WSJ article a few weeks ago the median age of death for covid in the US was 80. So you're going to average out the WHOLE world and treat every situation as one.

I can easily get US data – not the rest. I have read that the average mortality age for covid is very close to life expectancy age for each region. In other words - it kills you when you were statistically going to die from something anyway.

So we are locking down the world because 1.6% of all deaths are from covid and it is killing people around the age they usually die. Sounds a bit like the flu (etc) to me. How many times do you need to hear from the med experts that it's nothing like the flu. Or the damage it's doing to peoples health (heart, lung & brain) who didn't even need a ventilator.

I know it is not the flu – but then please go tell them to rename the Spanish Flu – it wasn’t a “flu” either- it was a coronavirus. And the flu usually kills older people – so does covid. So that is the comparison to the flu.

The naysayers will go "yeah but if we hadn't locked down it would be much worse". Ok - we can rely on mathematical models OR we can look at a real world 'model' - Sweden. LMFAO, see below. Even the experts who haven't lambasted Sweden have said it'll take yrs to know the answer the Q was the Swedish path correct. How about looking at the US, Italy, Spain, Britain etc.

Years to know the answer? They have had single digit mortality for almost a month now in Sweden. I did an analysis of the US as someone else mentioned that.

Sweden - popn 10.3m - life expectancy 82. so mathematically speaking they should have lost say 60-70,000 from all causes in the last 6-7 months. They have lost just over 5,800 due to covid. So less than 10% of the normal number of deaths have died of covid - median age of deaths is 84. Eighty nine percent of all deaths were 70 and over. Their rate of infections/death is very low now - no second wave. strange huh? (sarcasm alert). Sweden? Really, what a poor example. Death rate that is 3 to 5.5 times the other Nordic counties with NO BETTER ECONOMIC OUTCOME!!!!

So are you saying 3- 5.5 times as many people have died in Sweden than normal? Or are you saying that the deaths attributable to covid are 3-5.5times their neighbours? Look at my US analysis – you will see that in the US the total number of covid deaths is well inside the ‘venn’ diagram for deaths due to the prevailing co-morbities. Your assertion implies unique and additional deaths – when in fact they could simply be displacement deaths. Time will tell. Yes Sweden apparently trades – so because every other country has shut down, they have been affected economically.


Next argument - they didn't want to overwhelm the health system. Ok - Sweden again - they have about 25,000 hospital beds, They have had a total of 85K positive diagnoses of covid. Worldwide approx 80% or more of covid cases are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So if 20% needed hospitalisation then that means 17,000 beds needed. And let's face it- those 85K cases were spread over time though peaking a few months ago. So perhaps at its peak maybe 10,000 beds were needed - or 40% of them? So is that overwhelming the health system? Actually as of 2017 they had 22237 beds, declining from 31365 in 2000 (statista.com). By the way, what was the occupancy level prior to CV? How many ICU beds are there and how many ventilators?

Ok Google lied to me – it said they had 24,000 odd a couple of years ago – so you got me – if 10,000 went to hospital, that would have been more than40% not 40% as I quoted – you got me – excellent point! (sarcasm alert)I don’t know how many icu beds and ventilators. I tell you what, why don’t you research it and tell us all how wrong I am – or just guess and pontificate? The latter is probably a lot easier isn’t it.


Victoria Australia. They have a population of 6.4m - which means, mathematically speaking, about 219 people should die per day. They have lost a total of nearly two days worth of deaths due to covid. So that works out to be about 1% or so - 2 days out of the last 200 or so.

Australia had 7,500 ventilators before covid- they rushed out and bought another 2,500. As of a week or two ago, Victoria was using 42 of them - so only 9,960 spare - lucky they are in level 4 lockdown. According to the AGE, Vic had 1000 as of late March and had ordered 2000, so I doubt that the rest of the country had another 6,500. Do you think they should wait until they get inundated before buying more, or after seeing what was happening in Med countries they should be a little proactive.

(AFR 14/7) “Behind the scenes, ventilators,like almost all medical supplies, were proving difficult to procure from traditional overseas sources. The government turned to domestic suppliers to procure an additional 7500 units.” (my highlight)

So we were both wrong – whatever they had, they now have 7500 extra( I did read elsewhere (AFR) that it was 10,000 but can't find it now). So did Australia have zero before covid? Maybe 5,000? IDK.
I think it was Resmed who supplied them - in the first three months of this year they produced 55,000 ventilators with the vast majority for export.

If you think having only 7450 spare(+what we had precovid) is a significant and important difference to my original assertion of having 9,950 spare, so be it.

And I don't know the long term stats but I will make an assumption about nursing homes. I will assume most in there are 70-90 and average longevity is 80. I will assume they are no more or less healthy than those aged 70-90 outside nursing homes. Well with 6.4m people you would expect, very roughly, about 800,000 or more to be in that bracket (very very rough guesstimate). If the average age of morality is 80, then you would expect up to 10% of them to die per year- which is up to 80,000 of them per year. or say 40,000 in the last 6 or so months. Victoria has had, what , around 400 deaths due to covid. So about 1%. I would say best leave the stats to the professionals. I doubt your high school maths attempt is really up to it.

Don’t worry, I don’t rely on my high school maths- I use my Finance Grad Dip and my US MBA maths – same maths, more cachet ;-) And I was also pretty god damn good at maths at school, even if I say so myself ;-)

As an aside – using US figures it is 7.3% mortality average for 65 and over – so if you assume those that go into nursing homes are on the ‘less healthy’ side of being alive, then a figure higher than 7.3% would be appropriate – so I am pretty impressed with my 10% guesstimate ;-)