Originally Posted by
Albert Hall
I'm afraid that I think you're completely delusional if you still think there is any prospect of easyJet opening a SOU base in any form of reasonable planning timeframe. It just isn't going to happen.
For different reasons, I also think the prospect of an AF CDG service is very limited. AF/KL have jointly looked at how best to serve regional markets and in all but the larger markets, they will not be served by both KL and AF as the presence of the other makes the viability of the other less assured. There is only so much hub feed to go around. That's why you have not seen a headlong rush by AF into the likes of Cardiff, Exeter and Southampton despite the loss of Flybe connections to CDG from all three. CWL already has KL and EXT might land one or the other, but unlikely to have both. SOU has just seen a great announcement today by KLM increasing from 1 to 2 flights per day to AMS, which is great news for the airport. No matter how much you think they should, AF are not going to piss on KLM's chips (if you'll forgive the crudity of the statement) by adding SOU-CDG.
Blind hope and optimism is lovely to see, but your posting has lashings of both which are way beyond any bounds of credibility.
[PS: ABZ has both KL and AF. AF presence at ABZ is pretty much on the basis of a corporate contract from Total which is AF's largest corporate customer worldwide and has a big operation in ABZ. Pernod Ricard also is a big AF corporate customer with a few major investments accessed through ABZ. There's a reason it's there.]
Perhaps I did not make it clear but I am obviously not talking in the short term, and in the midst of a global pandemic. Even if SOU gets to go ahead first time around, which I am quietly confident about, we are still talking 2-3 years minimum for the works to be completed and be fully operational. I think the industry is clear that they expect a return to normality in 2-3 years time, so SOU could be perfectly placed for airlines that are looking to start afresh.
I did consider the canabolisation of feed in respect of AF/KL, but they both code-shared on BEs CDG and AMS routes so clearly feed exists to both. Off the top of my head isn't KLMs feed mainly from Asia, and AFs from Africa? Either way, whoever picks up the CDG route will merely be a placeholder until EZY open a base.
It is clear from the large investment that a low cost operator is the target for SOUs future, the current regional operators are welcome, but are never going to create an operation that makes a business case for SOU in its current state, let alone once millions of pounds have been poured in. Companies do not sign off on investment without a return clearly being defined from the outset. Yes covid will play a part, but the rich catchment of Hampshire etc is the key. SOU presents a low cost operator the oportunity of operating routes at a more convenient airport without any competition (unlike at LGW which also probably costs more to operate from). Purely my opinions of course, but I suspect the following operators could be possible candidates for the low cost operator (in most likely order): -
1. EZY - their business of targeting business customers as well as the middle classes who enjoy 3-4 holidays a year is a perfect fit for SOU and its catchment.
2. Wizz air - SOU and the surrounding area has a huge eastern european population, which has been established for decades. They have just shown willingness to operate from lesser airports such as DSA, which also including some sun routes like ALC and AGP which SOU has an established market for.
3. Volotea - they of course chose SOU as their first and only UK airport. They are fairly established in Spain and Italy, and currently have a strange focus on tiny airports in France. I think its safe to say that there will be more business case of operating from SOU then there is from the likes of Caen, Brest etc (of course once the works have been done).
4. New airline - the A220 would make a perfect base for a new hybrid low cost operator targeting thinner routes that the bigger players will not touch. Look at what serial aviation entrepreneur David Neeleman is aiming to do in the states with his new airline Breeze. Of course Air Baltic are building a sizable operation around the A220. Who knows, maybe a new operator will appear on the scene.
I have excluded the likes of FR and LS for one reason, and that's because they operate the 737. I cannot see any operator that's fleet is based around the 737 ever opening a base at SOU. It is a terrible aircraft that is basically over 50 years old. Yes it has been updated but it is still a compromised design. The max issues are a clear indication of a design that has been pushed too far. Even with the runway extension it will not be able to operate from SOU without restrictions.
These are of course just my predictions, and conditional on the extension works being completed and normality returning. Of course when talking about the present state of play reality needs to set in. Being relentlessly negative though is not going to add anything to what I hope will be a healthy debate going forward. Other threads seem to enjoy this privilege.