Originally Posted by
RubberDogPoop
...And the Donald Trump hyperbolic exaggeration prize goes to....
I see you've been using those highly accurate UCol London CFR models to boost your otherwise correct assertion that herd immunity aint going to fly.
Thanks. I read so many stories about that idiot that it must be rubbing off. Otherwise, many many people have said what a great job of adhering to Godwin’s law. The best ever some people are saying.
On a less hyperbolic note: There still is a lot of noise in the data with CFR and IFR getting jumbled. Apparently IFR isn’t typically known until a widespread serological study is done after a disease outbreak and statistical tools employed. The increased testing is starting to dilute the numbers somewhat over a classic CFR value owing to the inclusion of cases that otherwise would never be in the data.
The US numbers seem to be around 3-4% of the reported cases with an important caveat. Birx said yesterday that the testing is showing infections earlier than was the case waiting for clinical signs, thus stretching the timeline from detection to death and skewing the data. The Americans are predicting the daily toll to increase profoundly from their already sobering 1100 daily average.
So yeah, 300,000 dead would be a reasonable expectation if half of the country got Covid19 which, btw, is in the range required for the vaunted herd immunity value. But forget the exactitude of the number prediction. Just characterise it as a f**k of a lot.