I looked after recruitment at my previous operator over a decade ago, having a very aged, and experienced pilot body, we started some long term mapping on what the future holds for recruitment. We did this in conjunction with the regulator who was able to give us an insight into something we needed, data. The data is on par with the above, there is going to be considerable retirements 2033-2040, assuming the retirement age of 65. The unknown is how it’s going to play out within that period for those that are left. Going to be a lot of fast upgrades and high turnover at operators as they try to fill seats and maintain some form of experience. Remuneration in the sandpit will be highly attractive later down the track as they struggle to fill seats. The regionals will get burnt with high turnover and have a hard time of maintaining those in the left seat. Experience and quality of candidates at places like Jetstar will be low compared to what it is today, as everyone will move onto legacy carriers.
The point above of mass producing pilots above, being a ‘number’ is true for some operators, but not all. I assume you are referring to Emirates who lowered requirements in recent years. That carrier has had questionable safety incidents in the last decade. The culture had also taken a large dive there in recent times, and they have reached out to numerous other operators in a effort to hire top trainers to fix their problems. I fly with cadets mass produced. Some good, some not so good, are they the future trainers and CPs of this country, I don’t think so. Not from the behaviour that I have seen recently from some.