Ok Telfer, you really need to take a seat and think. Almost all of what you wrote was fear filled speculation without providing an objective assessment of the situation. It’s what we are meant to do as pilots, no?
Originally Posted by
Telfer86
1. International flying is gone for a long long time
How long is long, long? Who knows. From what most estimates and company predictions say is that the 787 and 330 will be mostly on the ground until mid 21 and the 380 until mid 23. You have no evidence of any timeframe longer than that.
2. AIPA isn't going to save you , they have lost every court challenge they initiated to QF this century (& there have been many)
No one will require any ”saving”. The Fair Work Commission have said however they’ll be doing as much as they can to ensure businesses have flexibility to ensure they survive and remain profitable during this time, meaning any court actions will probably be in the company’s favour.
3. There will be CRs at Qantas
There are no forecast redundancies beyond the 190 announced, which, with the lack of flying, everyone believes that VR will take care of. Everyone else remains on stand down until a position is available, as management have said about 100 times.
4. It is unlikely SH will be isolated
Here’s the funny thing. You say AIPA isn’t going to save you in court and they lose all cases in point 2 but it’s AIPA who have the view that CR applies to everyone. Again no SH surplus for the entirety of the restructuring timeframe, no redundancy. The company will prevail there, especially with a business friendly FWC. Of course with VR taking care of the surplus wilt won’t come to that at all.
5. Your more senior colleague urging you to "hang in there" just want a protective layer beneath them for when the inevitable CRs notices land
Or it’s more likely they have just been assessing the situation rationally and are offering common sense reasoning to their junior colleagues to avoid panic.
6. Any one who joined 2016 & doesn't take at least 3 to 5 years of lwop is either crazy or just not fussed so much
They aren’t crazy or not fussed. Everyone will assess the situation, and there are some who will prefer the definite time period off of LWOP to allow them to plan for a few years rather than to be subject to rotating stand downs which will probably be in place as the 787 and 330 come back to the line. Or they may be ok with that therefore avoid LWOP.
7. I think the CR will go back to early 2000s
No way. Every 330 and 787 SO when those pilots will start to be required in a year, plus payouts to all of them some of whom are starting to accumulate a bit of time in the company.
8. See it as an opportunity to gain additional skills , quals , a long long surfing trip whatever works for you
Probably your only sensible point. I think a lot of people will look back on these 1-3 years depending on fleet and realise they got a chance to experience another chapter to their working life on their one time on this planet, rather than spend 100% of it in Aviation.