I believe any talk / hope of a recovery from the Covid induced global economic hibernation particularly with reference to Aviation is at best optimistic if not downright naive!
If the following snippet from an economic article I was reading is any indication of the current state of affairs then to use a famous Australian vernacular:
“We’ll all be Rooned ,said Hanrahan before the year is out “
“: Over 80% of the world’s nations were in recession at the same time during the Great Depression in the early 1930s. The figure reached 60% right after the Second World War, as war industries demobilised, but domestic consumption had not yet ramped up. The 2008 global financial crisis put just over 60% of the world’s nations in recession at once.
Today the figure is 92%, the highest reading ever. That’s worse than both world wars, the Great Depression, and the 2008 crisis. And, that’s 92% of a much larger global economy that existed in the prior episodes.
Not only is this horrific in terms of absolute damage, it means there is no strong economic bloc to pull the world out of recession. There is no source of demand to help producing countries get off the mat.
This is one more reason why the current state of affairs is not just a technical recession; it’s a world historic depression that will persist for years to come.“