Back in February on another thread, I was warning this was going to be huge. I was repeatedly told "this virus has nothing to do with aviation so take your opinions elsewhere", as well as receiving the benefit of several lessons in high school math regarding exponential growth curves and log functions.
Anyway, that was a few months ago. I think the latest data suggests fairly strongly that we are further through this than we think, and that society overall will recover a bit faster than many think. Look at the ASX and NYSE.
I don't think there will be a devastating 2nd wave. Yes cases will increase as measures are relaxed. However there is very little chance we will need to lockdown again.
Sure, cases are increasing in parts of the USA. Behind the headline total numbers however, the % hospitalised and the % who die are falling significantly. The explanation is that with increased testing capacity, they are finding more of the milder cases that were always there but not diagnosed initially. It now appears clear the mortality rate is way under 1% (and closer to 0.1% for those under 60).
However, it will be a very different world for aviation for years to come
1. Fewer pax overall
2. Likely smaller aircraft - not sure the 380 is coming back to service anytime soon
3. Possibly more point-to-point flying, and less use of highly congested hubs
4. Fewer high yield business pax (J and full fare Y). Businesses will be saying "Zoom worked pretty well for 6 months ....."
5. A greater proportion of deeply discounted leisure pax in Y
So aviation will recover sooner than we think. But it will be a different world. Airlines and their workforce will need to plan accordingly.
Embrace change, or else it will embrace you.