Originally Posted by
Australopithecus
The US airlines are constrained by their government aid packages that prohibit furloughs until October. After that though most industry observers are expecting wholesale lay-offs and downgrades. Seniority systems in North America require LIFO and open bidding for every position which of course causes a training cascade. Those obligations are written into contracts that did not anticipate a pandemic so there may be airlines that seek relief in the courts including Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see our government extend job keeper for the airline and tourism sectors.
Most of that is fairly accurate. However, it would depend on the airline - A large single fleet airline can furlough with almost zero training churn and very little cost. United and Southwest being examples of massive churn vs. none.
Hopefully the paid leaves and early paid retirement will take care of the flex. Although, if an airlines management decides to use this as an opportunity to slash and burn (British Airways) then anything’s possible. It’ll depend on culture, money and the level of sociopathy at the top. Add the latter, and an Irishman; then it may be ugly. Good luck to BA and Qantas
