This is one of the strangest virus outbreaks. It is very strange clinically. It is also very strange epidemiologically. There has been a lot to learn, and much remains unknown.
However, it increasingly appears we don't need 60-70% of the population to be infected / immune to develop herd immunity and for the pandemic to burn out. All over the world, we are not seeing a significant 2nd wave as social restrictions are relaxed. Several European countries (e.g. Austria) have now relaxed long enough and have sufficient public health capability that they should be seeing a 2nd wave if it was there.
After several weeks of relaxing and colder weather, cases in Australia have not increased. Despite a lot of testing.
This figure of 60-70% was a core assumption from early days. This figure underpinned much modelling which has influenced government policy.
No country has close to 60% (NY city may have 25%, maybe).
We don't know why we are seeing this striking disconnect between theory and reality. More recent and more sensitive antibody tests suggest it may relate to prior coronavirus infection (there is a whole family of coronaviruses , and they are a relatively common cause of the common cold). So while we have not been exposed to this coronavirus before, many of us have been exposed to other coronaviruses which may be "close enough" to confer immunity.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ation-immunity
So...., we may be significantly closer to the end than we think.
The challenge may be matching supply to the new demand. I suspect there will be much less passenger traffic to/from China.