Originally Posted by
dr dre
There’s probably only 100-150 ish 747 pilots remaining anyway. From what I’m led to believe a lot of them were planning on retiring when the fleet retired so they were going anyway. Add to that the retirements that probably would’ve been occurring on other fleets in the next 12 months and that’ll sort out the remaining 747 numbers. Don’t forget the 150 pilots who won’t be recruited into mainline to replace those retiring 747 (and other) pilots over the next 12 months are sort of job losses in a way.
If there is a permanent reduction in any other fleets (not just shorter term stand downs) then there’ll be the need to talk of surpluses, but it doesn’t look like they’re proceeding on that path from anything which has been said at the moment.
Yeah, I would have imagined any genuine surplus from the 747 would have been about that number (100-150, plus the same yet to be recruited to replace them, so roughly 300 in total). If 100 or so make the decision or some are offered some kind of VR, then provided we don’t have another catastrophe the numbers should be about right.
The twin engined fleets look look like being the way forward for a while, so you’d have to say they’d want those numbers to be maintained for a ramp up over the next 12 months or so.
That’d be a little bit of a relief to those on the bottom of the list anyway.