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Old 23rd May 2020, 02:01
  #101 (permalink)  
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Asia
Posts: 858
Realistically, the 14 day quarantine can't go on forever. Most of the developed world is on the road to recovery with restrictions being eased and businesses gradually opening up. There will be localised outbreaks of COVID-19 such as what happened in South Korea when bars and nightclubs opened up, but this time we are on our guard and prepared to deal with them straight away. Precautions which will remain in place, such as social distancing, temperature checking and the wearing of masks, make a second wave on the scale of the first one extremely unlikely. Just like the additional security precautions after 11 September 2001, we will need to adapt to a new order.

Air travel will slowly resume, however the market will be very different and the airlines are on their knees. Domestic travel in virus free countries will fare best as people will stay within their own borders for safety and affordability. Travel bubbles between virus free countries are already starting which will require non stop flights, and where this isn't possible, severe restrictions will be put in place at the intermediate airport. Refueling, taking on cargo and a crew change being all that's allowed ie no joining transit passengers unless from other virus free countries in a separate terminal where they don't mix with pax from virus affected countries. This throws a spanner in the works for the Middle East 3.

Premium travel will take a hit as most people downgrade a level or two, first to business, business to economy, economy to low cost. Similar for hotels with the Premier Inn and Travel Lodge becoming the preferred options.

Airlines will make the best use of their fleet which is likely to involve A320/B737 replacing wide bodies on routes within their range where demand has dropped. B787s replace B777s and on longer runs. A350/B777 replaces A380 on most routes. A380 becomes a niche aircraft operated by a small number of airlines which fly routes where it can make a profit and justify a sufficient number of them for a critical mass. Having one or two in the fleet won't work.
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