Mngmt Mole
Your conclusion in regards of closing the bases is flawed. If management would offer a new contract to the Hong Kong based pilots to reduce cost, nothing would prevent CX to negotiate new terms with the bases as well. Don’t forget the bases were the first to agree on a temporary reduction in pay last month. The base closure clause is enforceable in all base jurisdictions and would cost CX a chunk of money. Some jurisdictions have mandatory severance pay in their labor laws which would add to the contractual liabilities CX has. At least for those who chose not to return to Hong Kong.
In terms of base vs HKG cost you might want to talk to the GMA as he has the latest base cost analysis numbers which in some jurisdictions contradict what you are saying.
For pilot redundancies to happen I would expect management announce a reduction in airplanes first. From the latest communications it sounds to me that there is a great deal of uncertainty within CX how our recovery could look like. Hence the delay in talking to the HKAOA. Maybe management is cautiously optimistic and instead of achieving immediate cost savings via redundancies is trying to achieve the same with reducing pilot renumeration across the board to be more flexible. On the other hand CX rejected the government aid package and as such is free to lay-off employees. The latest change to COS18 indicates to me that possible redundancies will be not be made in seniority within that group (747 pilots might stay). Anyways, as far as I know COS18 pilots would have never been included on the official redundancy list.
But hey, who knows? One thing is for sure, no-one here on this board has any inside information.
Decisions like this will be ultimately made by the CEO and Board of Directors. Hopefully they will make their decision soon.