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Old 16th May 2020, 17:02
  #50 (permalink)  
armchairpilot94116
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: the City by the Bay
Posts: 524
Very dangerous virus that is also still mutating. No question it is dangerous, probably 100 times more powerful than the common flu or more.
WE had a practice run with Sars 1 but a lot of the world did not pay attention. Now we have Sars 2 and some countries took measures they took in Sars 1 and are looking pretty good SO FAR (Taiwan for example).

A good practice seems to be :

1. Close borders, track those infected and everyone else who they may have infected, isolate them, test everyone else . Most countries failed at this and thus containment of the virus didn't happen. WE know the results.

2. Flatten the curve. This is really only a measure to allow the medical facilities to give those who need ICU treatment a chance (and it took weeks on the machines for a chance at survival and the death rate for those in ICU was very very high, in some facilities up to 100pct). Flattening the curve kills the economy and after a time no government can afford everyone to stay home anymore. Curve flattening was just to keep spikes in ICU attention manageable , or at least as much as possible.

3. Herd immunity. Word from many researchers seems to be that this virus will ultimately be uncontained and uncontrollable and basically near everyone is going to get it.
80pct of those who get it "should" not require medical attention. OF the 20pct who do, they may need a lot of treatment and of those perhaps 10 pct or 20pct will die. No one knows the exact numbers as everyone would need to be tested to give a good view. Many researchers feel the overall death rate may be around 1 to 2 pct of all those infected. This would make it still hundreds of times more dangerous than the flu.

But if the world economy goes under millions face huge problems, then possibly 90pct of everyone in the world will have problems caused by a failed economy, failed food and water distribution, etc.

Sars 1 suddenly stopped. Let's hope this virus mutates into a less virulent form (rather than the opposite) and we can get the world back on its feet. We need to. Even if one to two percent or up to five percent of everyone on Earth does not survive. That is better than far more people dying due to a failed world order providing food/ water/ security, shelter. etc.

We have to get back to work !

Losing up to five pct of the world's 7.7 Billion population is no small matter. But endangering 7.7 Billion people will cause more than 5pct to die.
IF everyone stays home indefinitely we will all die.

armchairpilot94116 is offline