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Old 16th May 2020, 15:49
  #45 (permalink)  
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: london
Posts: 703
Epidemiology isnt hard fact, it is modelling with varying degrees of success. Now we can look back a few months we can see

1 The WHO should have acted to close China's borders in January. There is significant concern that there is poor leadership behoven to the Chinese

2 Many other countries including the UK should have closed their borders to humans in February. Australia and New Zealand demonstrate that can significantly reduce deaths

3 By the time many countries locked down it was too late. In the UK we were effectively at the peak, controlled solely by social distancing. Lockdown may have reduced deaths but the number of infected people would have progressively fallen regardless

4 In many countries it is now reasonably safe to act normally outside with social distancing. However indoor transmission could still increase the attack rate, and hospitals and care homes remain relatively dangerous

5 Commercial aircraft with humans is the opposite of social distancing. It is very dangerous unless you can guarantee every patient is covid 19 negative. That requires a period of isolation, a PCR swab undertaken by a trained professional plus a questionnaire. That is not feasible so I at least wont fly.

6 We are all fighting each ohter and then adding conspiracy theories when I suspect we all agree we should unlock as much as possible. Lets get the economies up to speed where we can, accept some sectors such as air travel will be hit for some time, and concentrate financial support on airlines to keep them alive until flying is safe
homonculus is offline