PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - What chance is there of a new UK start up airline?
Old 14th May 2020, 08:35
  #22 (permalink)  
frozenpilot
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 95
I personally believe we will see confidence return quicker than we currently believe ( more so in certain sectors). If they are here by that time, my prediction would be;

- BA gaining an even stronger grip on the long haul sector out of Heathrow ( who knows Virgins fate, but it is highly likely with BA’s cash reserves and newly negotiated cost base, they will be well positioned to capitalise)
- Ryanair strangle the low cost market even more, benefit from cheaper fuel, I expect further Aircraft orders from a desperate manufacturer later this year. Love or loathe him MOL is key to the industry at this point, his hard nosed tactics of dismissing Governments threats of quarantine and flooding the market with cheap seats will accelerate confidence in the market over the next 6-12 months
- Wizz air getting bigger and will likely open new U.K. bases, particularly if easyJet do shrink and pull out
- Jet2 get a firm grip of the holiday/leisure market ( you can’t imagine LGW base anytime soon ) with their low cost base and a growing demand for ‘value’ package deals next year if/when we can be released upon our European counterparts
- Regionals either dominated by Eastern/Logan & Stobart... Or EasyJet stepping in with the A319’s ( already putting MAN-ABZ), Maybe BA via Cityflyer will gain an appetite for some of the profitable regional sectors.

It is hard to see where the gaps for a new carrier may appear ( without the failure of others ) but it is likely there will be some aggressive growth coming from those with strong balance sheets in the not too distant future. Right now there appears no light at the end of the tunnel ( although I read a ‘game changer’ antibody test is about to be put into production) we are creatures of habit, very predictable and currently in the midst of a scary outbreak that is perpetuated by awful media hype and scare tactics....

I strongly believe for those that have the reserves/support to get through the next few months will bounce back to growth. This will be aided by science, technology ( vaccine? ) and a better understanding on the virus.
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