Originally Posted by
Vokes55
Gatwick is by far easyJet's largest and most important base and has been limited by nothing more than a lack of slots. BA know if they give up their 30+ pre-10am slots at Gatwick, they'll be eaten up by easyJet in no time and they'll never get them back. Even in times when easyJet aren't in expansion mode, they would use the more attractively timed BA slots in place of their earliest flights of the day (last summer up to 15 flights per day departed before 6am).
In my opinion, they will not let that happen. Any talk of a 'new normal' or 'things will never be the same' is a matter of personal opinion, because you know as much as I do how the market will look like in 2-5 years - and that's diddly squat.
Even if BA were to use just the morning slots they would probably be able to “protect” quite a number of slots from being poached by a based carrier like easyJet. Because unless easyJet can keep the aircraft working all day they would be inclined to base it elsewhere.
That said the London market is very attractive and likely to be one of the first to show signs of recovery when “new normal” is established. I don’t think airlines need to worry about their Summer 20 and even winter 20/21 slots, until the medium-term government restrictions are designed, communicated and seen to be effective in terms of numbers of infected and/or deaths. BA have had their lunch eaten at Gatwick by EasyJet, who have been eaten at Luton by Wizz. Nothing is static and easyJet aren’t necessarily the largest risk. Aer Lingus and Norwegian have tried LGW in the recent past, neither was successful. With TCX and VS long haul gone from Gatwick, Norwegian not returning until Summer 21 at the earliest, BA do have a window of opportunity on long-haul at least.
In short speculating is purely that. We just don’t have enough information about the government restrictions and the effect of subsequent waves. It’s going to be fascinating to watch and there are bound to be relative winners and losers.