Originally Posted by
guy_incognito
. .............However, while training costs will remain absurdly expensive, the terms and conditions offered by airlines will be absolutely appalling.
First officer contracts will most likely be at the zero hour, minimum wage level with no additional benefits, and captains will be earning £60k. Why anyone would want to take on mortgage levels of debt to train for that is beyond me.
SIMPLE ECONOMICS
I suspect that when the training machine starts up again, the established ATOs will recognise that they will have to be ‘creative’ to get new customers through the door, as demand for new pilots will be somewhat minimal.
Survival of the fittest will undoubtedly play its part, and their pricing will be governed entirely by the economic principle of supply & demand.
What the market will bear.
Until the point is reached where airlines are crying out for junior birdmen, airline T&Cs are unlikely to improve, and training costs will not increase significantly.
As has been alluded to, a lot of airlines will either go to the wall, as will ATO training organisations. For the stronger ones, metamorphosis may well occur.
Phoenix from the ashes, aided by State Intervention in a number of cases for the AOC holders.
The picture painted above, in relation to the airlines, is one of excessive supply with not a lot of demand; a situation not dissimilar to the present price of crude oil.
As to when a significant recovery will occur ~ 3 to 5 years. Normal service fully resumed by 7 years.
Let us hope Prof Sarah Gilbert’s team at Oxford produces a vaccine in the not to distant future.