Originally Posted by
Big Pistons Forever
Canada's deficit is projected to go from 19 Billion dollars last year to potentially 200 Billion this year. As a middle power like the UK, albeit at a lower tranche in the power projection pecking order, anybody currently serving in any branch of the Canadian Armed Forces is delusional if they think there is not going to be massive changes in how the CAF is funded in the future.
In a perfect world it is time for the all the branch elders get together and put aside inter service bickering and come up with a plan to manage defense cuts of 10%,20%,30%,40% and 50 % and a doomsday 75%. One thing is for certain, if senior leaders let the politicians make the force capability decision for them, they are not going to like the results
One of the unpalatable realities, is that for Canada, per capita defense dollars go in the order of Air Force - Navy - Army. A 50 % cut, which is my prediction, means an Army centric CAF with just enough air assets to support mobility and just enough other Air Force and Navy assets to meet the national sovereignty mission. It pains me to say this as a Navy veteran but the Army gives the most bang for he buck. It would mean the whole sale parking of a large part of the Air Force and Navy assets and the cancelling of many land warfare capabilities. .
While terrible in the short term. I actually think it would be good in the long term because it would force a total reset and require a cold clear eyed answer to the fundamental question, "Why do we have a Military and what do we as a nation, want it to do" ? The brass hats better have good answers when, not if the budget ax falls......
I would suggest the UK Military is in a broadly similar position to Canada with a special caveat for the nuclear forces.
Interesting points..I think all you can say is there will be blood on the floor between the services - as usual!
I'd forgotten about Trident replacement - If it carried on it might be THE defence budget!
Also will be interesting to see what happens in the US, especially if Trump stays in power. Can't imagine he will understand the realities and cut back defence spending...
He'll also still be pressing NATO for the 2% commitment!