Originally Posted by
squidie
Definitely no display of respect here to people both suffering job losses and those embarking on pilot training right now. Not that I’m saying peoples opinions are wrong or inconceivable but quite knee jerk at best.
Absolutely the industry is going to take one of the biggest hits in the commercial industry life line, if not the worst in the last twenty years. But quote "5/10" years of no growth must be a random guess right?! Is there anyone around that actually was ATP during both the 9/11 and 2008 crisis and knows the actual figures of recovery when it comes to time?
Modular routes have their benefits; more time to study and better control financially and that’s my opinion because that’s what I did. I didn’t do any integrated training and unlikely won’t if it comes to it.
I am still seeing youngsters embarking to this day on new integrated courses with all the risks that come with a global pandemic and heavily industrial shutdown…
My opinion; wait until later this year or next to figure how the industry has responded to the crisis. I also see very little (if any growth) in the short term but have no thoughts on it never recovering because that’s more unlikely then anything. There is yet to be more airline and job losses because we’re all still in the chip pan right now.
EDIT: IAG (BA) response today regarding their plans and outlook: "Recovery to the level of passenger demand in 2019 is expected to take several years, necessitating Group-wide restructuring measures"
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/.../14520454.html
I was around during the Pilot glut of the early 90's caused by a number of factors; house price crash, UK dropping out of the ERM, bankruptcy of Dan Air and Air Europe... That glut lasted about 6 years from 1990 to 1996.
Then I was also around for the aftermath of 9/11. That was a relatively short lived downturn. It was early days for the low costs and they were growing fast. I think full recovery occured by 2003.
Then I was made redundant towards the end of the financial crisis, June 2009. There was a glut of Pilots then. My colleagues started to get jobs by the end of 2010. Full recovery by 2011. However a lot of the recovery was to do with an extremely rapidly expanding China at that time.
My forecast for the current downturn depends largely on whether it's scaled up testing or a vaccine which is required to turn the tide. Assuming that it's a vaccine:
- We'll get domestic and some regional flights by Summer 2020 when lockdown finishes
- They say a Vaccine in 18 months. That would mean initiation of worldwide flights by Autumn 2021
- Peak summer 2022. I would expect worldwide flights to be back at 50% 2019 levels
- Then due to limitations on training within the industry, expansion would occur at about 20% per year.
That would have us back to 2019 levels in 2025. This could be a little quicker, maybe 2024, if testing works well.
Let me just say though, this current situation is entirely unprecedented. No look at history will decipher the outcome.