Definitely no display of respect here to people both suffering job losses and those embarking on pilot training right now. Not that I’m saying peoples opinions are wrong or inconceivable but quite knee jerk at best.
Absolutely the industry is going to take one of the biggest hits in the commercial industry life line, if not the worst in the last twenty years. But quote "5/10" years of no growth must be a random guess right?! Is there anyone around that actually was ATP during both the 9/11 and 2008 crisis and knows the actual figures of recovery when it comes to time?
Modular routes have their benefits; more time to study and better control financially and that’s my opinion because that’s what I did. I didn’t do any integrated training and unlikely won’t if it comes to it.
I am still seeing youngsters embarking to this day on new integrated courses with all the risks that come with a global pandemic and heavily industrial shutdown…
My opinion; wait until later this year or next to figure how the industry has responded to the crisis. I also see very little (if any growth) in the short term but have no thoughts on it never recovering because that’s more unlikely then anything. There is yet to be more airline and job losses because we’re all still in the chip pan right now.
EDIT: IAG (BA) response today regarding their plans and outlook: "Recovery to the level of passenger demand in 2019 is expected to take several years, necessitating Group-wide restructuring measures"
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/.../14520454.html