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Old 28th Apr 2020, 00:13
  #55 (permalink)  
V-Jet
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: S33E151
Posts: 1,086
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In the Depression people could spend money if they wanted to. Now they can't - they will hoard it. That means lack of demand. Lack of demand leads to lack of supply which leads to lack of jobs. The stock market hits and unemployment figures have more or less matched the Depression from 1929-1933. The differences now are that we've passed that in the last 4 weeks (not 5 years) and even in the Depression if I'd given you $10,000 you could have gone out and partied like it was 1999 - now you just cant do that.

Forgive the use of US figures, it's easier to use a single set we are all relatively familiar with. In 2008 US unemployment hit 15.3m, as of today there are likely 30-33m unemployed, which equates to something in excess of 25%.

30+ MILLION people effectively on welfare and not spending (forget about travelling!) in ONE economy is staggering. This is a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions - certainly at this stage I don't think anyone has a clue as to what is happening. Stock market players certainly don't - negative oil prices, bank collapses, there is no manual for this ultimate black swan event. If anyone had suggested 30% unemployment and oil at MINUS $40 even 4-5 weeks ago they would have been put away.

Airlines, travel and hospitality are the front lines. It's not going to be pretty for anyone, but even when people can travel again, they will likely be very cautious and that's even if they do actually have the money to do so....

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