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Old 27th Apr 2020, 10:54
  #47 (permalink)  
YellowFever777
 
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Originally Posted by exfocx
Sorry but I think you've confused what's happening today as just part of the "business cycle".

From RD https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/202...t-and-history/ :

Think of the central bank as having a bottle of stimulant that they can inject into the economy as needed with the amount of stimulant in the bottle being limited. When the markets and the economy sag they give them shots of the money and credit stimulant to pick them up, and when they’re too hot they give them less stimulant. These moves lead to cyclical rises and declines in the amounts and prices of money and credit, and goods, services, and financial assets. These moves typically come in the form of short-term debt cycles and long-term debt cycles. The short-term cycles of ups and downs typically last about eight years, give or take a few. The timing is determined by the amount of time it takes the stimulant to raise demand to the point that it reaches the limits of the real economy’s capacity to produce. Most people have seen enough of these short-term debt cycles to know what they are like—so much so that they mistakenly think that they will go on working this way forever. They’re most popularly called “the business cycle,” though I call them “the short-term debt cycle” to distinguish them from “the long-term debt cycle.Over long periods of time these short-term debt cycles add up to long-term debt cycles that typically last about 50 to 75 years.[2]Because they come along about once in a lifeti me most people aren’t aware of them; as a result they typically take people by surprise, which hurts a lot of people. The last big long-term debt cycle, which is the one that we are now in, was designed in 1944 in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and was put in place in 1945 when World War II ended and we began the dollar/US-dominated world order.
Yes my friend, as noted previously I am familiar with the article. Dalio also said recently that he expects a 3 to 5 year recovery period. He hasn't given a prediction about the airline industry as far as I'm aware. He is also just one man and not infallible - "He also thanked the Chinese for their work on coronavirus, noting that doing so was political: “The Chinese, in many ways, are helping with things that are needed to manage this crisis.”"

The point I've been trying to make is that no one knows for sure what the recovery will look like, especially not over a 15 year timescale.
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