My thoughts
Vaccine plus 12-18 months before countries start to open their borders properly for tourism as we saw it. I believe there is plenty of desire to go travelling, it’s the closed borders or restrictions that will stop it. That’s close to 3 years....
Internal domestic travel in countries where community transmission is controlled a lot sooner. But I really can’t see international getting to what....20-30% for years? I feel sick as I contemplate that but I can’t see it better than that. 15 years we will all have forgotten it ever happened, just in time for the next crisis.