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Old 20th Apr 2020, 14:49
  #296 (permalink)  
116d
 
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Originally Posted by commit aviation
It will be interesting to see how this pans out. For the the sake of the staff involved I hope they pull through.

If Virgin Atlantic goes how many routes would lose competition? Off the top of my head I am thinking a few Caribbean routes but there may be others.
Without that competition fares are likely to increase and with Norwegian also in a difficult situation I wonder if any other airlines would step in.
The chance of new airline start ups seems unlikely bearing in mind the lack of government support for the sector.

How many any of those currently commenting negatively on bailouts will then be doing the same about increasing fares?
No idea, but let's look at the MAN aspect. ATL, LAS and LAX would be lost with no alternative (though DL may take over ATL again), MCO would mean having to rely on TUI to SFB/MLB at reduced frequencies and similarly to BGI. As for JFK, the only option is United to EWR unless DL again chooses to step in with its own JFK service. I would also expect nobody to take over the DEL route due to start later this year and DL starting and maintaining the BOS route remains to be seen. I know there's a Clubhouse on the way for this year, but the presence of a Clubhouse didn't save EWR from being permanently chopped from the VS network.

If VS did go under or drastically cut back its operations, it would be bad news for MAN. I certainly can't see BA or anybody else stepping into the breach and fear it would either be a long time for these routes to return or never. I know a lot of the discussion around competition is focused at the London end, but let's remember the expansion VS have been carrying out in the north.

It's also worth noting that MAN has lost 3 airlines with large presences in the last 2 1/2 years (Monarch, Thomas Cook and Flybe), so it's little wonder they lobbied the government lately as they don't want a fourth. The current crisis is threatening to undo all the growth of the network from MAN in general in recent years.
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