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Old 13th Apr 2020, 04:41
  #412 (permalink)  
chance
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: australia
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If VA wants a $1.4 B Loan from Government over three years then that amounts to three yearly equal re-payments of circa $466M as a simple example. Given the recent balance sheets the question to ask is will there likely to be a surplus of funds to service that debt with the other likely increases that all the supply chain sufferers will try an claw back to cover their own losses. Just watch the price of fuel as one example.
Govt may well decide that two mainline carriers are desirable grant the loan and take an equity position in any unpaid portion of the loan at the end of year 3 and then sell that down over time.
That may well be the only option as the complexity of the current VA opex/capex ratio does not give much room to move from looking at they balance sheet. Govt would also need to be sure Scurrah's restructuring and market positions moves to sort mess left by Il Duce are sound, which on balance they appear to be.
It is also likely that the QF Board will move on the Irishman in due course after they celebrate their 100th Birthday later this year and he may well be replaced by someone less adversarial but maybe not as competent, so lots of balls in the air for both players. There is unlikely to be any cabotage and I doubt any foreign buyer will be in a position to but VA and its debts and well as funding the VA opex in the next few years.
chance is offline