The Coming Battle

[Trafalgar]

I must begin by stating that what I am about to say is strictly my personal opinion, nothing more. It’s fair to say I’ve been wrong on many occasions… Regardless, this will prove a defining moment in the careers of every current CX pilot. Difficult times come to nearly all careers, but how the individual deals with the facts of those circumstances determines the long-term outcome of their careers.

The one certainty in the present time is that our business/company will never be the same again. Regardless of people’s desire to travel, it is almost assured that the industry will be subject to many new regulations regarding “social distancing” and enhanced health requirements. There will be huge new costs to comply with that, and I believe overall we will not see the early 2020 travel figures returning for several years at best.

CX management is not going to let this opportunity pass. I have it on good authority that there are significant changes coming to the base contracts, and then once that has been settled, to the HK pilots contracts. I don’t like stating that, but you can be assured of threats of changes to come. Unfortunately, CX management have been handed the most significant set of circumstances imaginable from a standpoint of advantage in negotiation with their employees. They will not allow that opportunity to pass without attempting an assault on your present conditions. Simply put; if they don’t attack now, how could they ever again justify action when times have improved?

With attempted change assured, what are the collective pilot unions of CX to do? They should be seeking one goal; to insist on a wholesale change of management, and significant changes to lifestyle choices. The reason being is that it can be fairly argued that such changes will benefit the company as well as the individual. The only other option is to accept that all advantage the pilots had is now gone, and individually make plans to move on when times return to a semblance of normality.

What should not be accepted is that there is only a one-way movement of advantage. The company WILL seek that outcome. It is imperative that the unions unite and insist on actual change at the top, and certainly in policy and procedure. The irony to all of this is something that the company does not want you to realise: when you have effectively nothing to lose, then you actually have power in your situation. Once the job has lost much of its value, then the concern of losing the job actually loses much of its effectiveness. The company has long understood that, and is actually fearful of you having that awareness. In the past few years, they became quite concerned at the number of resignations, and were (and are) concerned in ultimately having enough pilots for the inevitable expansion that will come in a few years time (why do you think that we STILL have new cadet joiners almost every week, with no change in sight to that reality)?

In the meantime, you need to manage your own careers and expectations. CX will certainly attempt a head-on attack at some point. That is probably unavoidable. They will attack the bases, with the belief that probably 30% will not come back to HK, thereby eliminating many senior pilots. Better to resolve to return, and insist the company bear those costs. If they understand that every one of you WILL return, then the threat becomes much diminished, to the point that the company may not follow through with their strategy (and if they do, then you at least can take the most cost intensive option available, and know that the company miscalculated). The secret to winning a guerilla war is to make your enemy understand that you are willing to go just that much further than they are. If the company threatens, simply tell them that you are happy to return to HK, on your full housing entitlement, and then be prepared to follow through no matter what. If they understand you are serious then there is a very high likelihood that they will back down. Resolve now to know how you will respond, and don’t give them the light of day towards succeeding in their plans. The real power is in your resolute determination to not buckle to their threats. Under NO circumstance must any of you suggest to the company that you will buckle and “resign under protest”. That would certainly play into their hands.

No doubt we are going through difficult times, and the landscape of our industry has significantly changed. The main thing is to remain calm, focused and resolved to maximise what advantage you each have as individuals, and as a collective group. Certainly you do not want to exhibit weakness and fear to a management like CX’s at a time like this.

The current circumstance will quickly improve. That is why it is important to recognize that an attack now is only opportunism from the company. Resolve to give them the answers they least expect and you will certainly obtain the best outcome possible. From my experience, the collective wisdom and intelligence of the pilot group is far greater than that of our management. Your intelligence, work ethic, street smarts and long-term focus is certainly more than capable of overcoming the typical arrogance, myopic smugness and character weakness of most of the senior Swire management that will attempt to attack you and your families. I met and opposed many of them over a 30 year period, and they were all woefully ill-equipped on final analysis. Prepare now, and you will overcome any adversity. After all, that is your one great advantage: you have character and integrity, and nearly all your adversaries lack both qualities.

Traf

ps. that last sentence applies imho to all but one: the current son of a long lost CEO. He would prove a good leader of CX at some point in the future, as he seems to have something sorely lacking in most of our Swire managers...a soul and a conscience.

pps. reference the above; he's not "Politically Correct"...which you can refer to my previous thread for context.