Post COVID-19 business opportunities in the Indo-Asia-Pacific Region
Australian readers would no doubt agree there is a lot of misinformation about the helicopter industry in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. Fortunately, data released at the recent Singapore Airshow showed there are an estimated 6,000 helicopters in the region. Which is about one third of the civilian helicopter registrations in the USA.
The Australian and New Zealand helicopter figures were a surprise to many of the international visitors to Singapore Airshow in February 2020. These two countries with a combined population of only 30 million population have more than half (3,200) of the total helicopters in the area from India, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, Japan, and across to the Philippines; to name a few.
This is an interesting comparison to Canada which has a population of 37 million and 2,848 helicopters (2018 data).
Australian helicopter industry. Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) data current to 14 Feb ’20 indicated Australia had 13,372 aeroplanes and 2313 helicopters for a total of 15,685 aircraft. Helicopters made up 15% of the registrations. Fleet growth rates over the past year for both aeroplanes and helicopters are effectively zero! This was a great disappointment to Australians as the helicopter industry growth is usually twice the traditional GDP at 4.6% pa. In fact, during the decade prior to the Global Financial Crisis; the growth rate was 7 to 8% pa.
Prior to COVID-19, economists suggest the slowed global economy, the prolonged drought in Australia, several severe flood disasters and the recent record-breaking bushfires have contributed to this situation. But there was good news coming from the recent Heli-Expo 2020 in the USA. Several leading manufacturers stated sales were about to move forward again. This would have been good news to the Robinson Helicopter Company whose products dominate the Australian register. The past year has seen a dramatic drop in their sales; but industry experts suggest global helicopter industry is just at the bottom of one of the seven-year cycles. Kurt Robinson, son of Frank Robinson, was optimistic about the immediate future as they were receiving a lot more enquiries. From the early eighties Australia has purchased 10% of the Robinson output.
Australia’s global position. Australia is ranked second in the western world for helicopter registrations. (It would be third after Russia which has mainly heavy machines and a small number of small privately-owned machines).
Australia has the largest fleet of light helicopters in the world, after the USA. Now listed are 1,413 piston engined helicopters (61% of registrations) and 897 turbine powered helicopters (39%). Of the 897 turbine powered helicopters, 630 are SE engined helicopters (70%) and 267 are ME (30%). The Robinson Helicopter Company dominates the Australian register with 1,201 machines, or 52% of all helicopter registrations. The Robinson lead helicopter is the R22 helicopter (617), closely followed by the R44 (553). The Robinson piston engine helicopters make up 85% of the Australian piston fleet.
International Registrations. Probably due to the disastrous bushfires which have only recently been doused by flooding rains; many international helicopters were placed on the CASA Aircraft Register. Of the 2,313 helicopters on the register, 75 were registered as international aircraft. Companies represented: Argentina -1; Barbados - 1; Canada - 2; Cayman Islands - 7; France - 4; Ireland - 20; Japan - 2; New Zealand - 6; PNG - 3; Samoa - 1; United Kingdom - 3; and USA - 26 for a total of 75.
Location of Australian helicopters. This often hotly disputed topicis left over from a situation which existed half a century ago. At that time, a great percentage of all aviation activities, including helicopter operations, occurred in Victoria. In fact, CASA’s predecessor was headquartered in Melbourne. But today, almost 50% of registered helicopters are north of the “Brisbane line” due to the expansion of rural, tourist and private operations in remote areas in the northern parts of the Australian continent. The leading state is Queensland 758, followed by New South Wales - 526; Victoria – 331; Western Australia - 290; Northern Territory - 191; South Australia – 77; Tasmania - 48 and Australian Capital Territory – 9.
New Zealand breaks records. With a population of only 4.7 million, their aircraft register lists 5,401 aircraft of which 924 are helicopters, which make up 17% of the total. Robinson helicopters make up one quarter of the registrations with 245: consisting of R22 – 90, R44 – 149 and R66 – 6. Other piston types are well represented and probably make up about another 15%. The turbine fleet is dominated by single engine Bell 206 and Airbus 350 series used for agricultural and tourist operations. The AS350 has a good lead over the Bell 206 numbers.
Due to the need for high-performance helicopters to operate in mountainous and windy terrain, the New Zealand twin-engine fleet consists mainly of light twins capable of SAR and aeromedical work. By comparison to Australia, where long-range operations require larger helicopters which access more remote areas.
At present, New Zealand is recognised as a country with more helicopters per head of population than any other. They have 924 helicopters for only 4.7 million people – an excellent result! (5,086 people per helicopter). By comparison, Australia – 10,808 and USA 13,880.
What is happening in rest of APAC? A report published at the Singapore Airshow stated although the expansion of the civil turbine helicopter fleet in the Asia-Pacific region continued in 2019 (up 2 percent), the growth trajectory is slowing, from 5% in 2018 and 3.9% in 2017. The fleet reached 4,373 civil helicopters in 2019, up from the 4,289 at the end of 2018. Report indicated a further drop of the growth rate to 1.5% is expected in 2020. This is reflected in the latest figures from Australia and New Zealand where growth has slowed significantly.
Focus on China. This has occurred in mainland China. After seeing a 10 percent jump year-over-year in 2018, this has softened slightly to 6% net growth, or 41 helicopters, in 2019. While the rate is still well above the region’s average, it marked the first time since 2009 it had fallen to a single-digit percentage. More than half of the fleet, 53%, is used for multi-mission, with corporate, law enforcement, and charter uses each accounting for 8% of the remainder, followed by offshore at 7%, emergency medical at 6%, search and rescue at 6%, private at 2%, and training only at one percent. This creates an opportunity for other nations, who have a reasonable training capability to assist China. The provision of helicopter professionals, in much the same way as Australia has an enormous industry producing pilots for various Chinese Airlines.
OEM status? Airbus continues to account for the largest share of the Asia-Pacific civil helicopter market at 42%, followed by Bell, this 27% and Leonardo at 11%. However, Leonardo saw the most growth in terms of net additions, with 34 more helicopters. Sikorsky, meanwhile, saw 13 deductions in 2019. Preferences remain for single engine turbine helicopters, accounting for 52%, while medium helicopters claim a 24% market share.