Unfortunately, comparisons are unavoidable with the last days of Ansett.
Structural problems within the companies being brought to a head by a major world event, though this time it's far more serious.
Both were losing money however Ansett were more encumbered by unions and high staff rates of pay.
Calls for government bailouts, though this time QF are included.
If history repeats, then the next step would be to restructure into a smaller operation with reduced aircraft types, numbers and routes. Even then the consortium trying to rescue Ansett wanted government guarantees of profitability, when these weren't forthcoming they pulled the plug.
However Virgin is a much leaner operation than Ansett and the problems aren't as deep routed, given that the government will want to maintain a competitor to QF they will probably back a reduced sized and heavily restructured operation limited to B737 domestic flying. Done correctly this could be profitable, and a convincing argument made for a rescue package on the basis of sweeping changes leading to profitability in the medium term.
All previous projections are now out the window and any forecasts will need to be made based on the basis of a vastly changed operating environment in the short to medium term.
One factor heavily in favour of Virgin is that if things reach the stage where Qantas has to be nationalised, the government would want a counter balance to any demands from the QF unions for excessive pay increases from what would be an all powerful monopoly airline, capable of bringing Australia to a stand still if its demands weren't met . Divide and rule.
Last edited by krismiler; 7th Apr 2020 at 11:19.