Whilst I see what you are saying I can’t agree with the Jetstar NZ on the list. It is likely that this operation will be the 1st Qantas group entity to start flying domestically again. It has been profitable for years and will more than likely keep its small share of the domestic market. Domestically in Australia will recover however it has to be seen if there is a big enough market for Virgin, Qantas and Jetstar. Which product will be ramped up first, Qantas or Jetstar? Jetstar Japan may recover relatively well with China on the face of it moving out of lockdown and Japan managing to flatten their curve. Jetstar Singapore is stuffed I think, as is Qantas International at its current size. Also where does Jetconnect fit now? They only do Tasman flying and when we maybe get to opening the Tasman we may see a reduction in overall services and will Qantas International want that work? Having said that here may be less seats in the Tasman due to the likes of Emirates not having access due to international restrictions and the possible disappearance of Virgin.
Of course this is all pure speculation, if there is a treatment soon things could warm up quicker than expected, when restrictions ease there is a lot of travel credit in the system that people will want to use, businesses will want to get back to work ASAP and of course a vaccine could change everything in 12 months time. Also in NZ kiwis spend 4bn per year on overseas travel, will a good proportion of that be directed to domestic travel or holidays? Depends on the unemployment rate I guess.
at the end of the day no one knows, we don’t know what Joyce and Co are thinking, hey could be sharpening the blade to cut loose excess staff, they could be planning on an assault on the market to try and increase market share during the loss making times, they could be planning on shutting the whole thing down and starting a new entity with radically reduced EBA’s. time will tell, there is going to be a lot of careers ended or curtailed though.