Originally Posted by
flocci_non_faccio
It’s clearly not going to take 18 months for international travel to start again. It will be up and running within a couple of months. The issue is the volume of travel, which isn’t going to be nearly enough to sustain aviation jobs at the level they’re at now.
The industry that emerges is going to be a third of the size it is now, and it will never get back to its current size ever again. Hence, the majority of those about to lose their jobs will never fly again.
I see you posting very precise numbers on numerous threads, yet every flying colleague I have the discussion with, some who've been in the business decades and seen it all, have absolutely no clue how we'll come out of this. Your sharp and seemingly certain figures are astounding.
Anyway, my humble opinion is that things will recover and will in time reach pre-covid levels, if not greater. There will be aggressive expansion at some point post all this. (cue cries of the never ending pilot shortage again... all part of the circle of life in this industry)
People are desperate to get away, this clearing will be like the end of a prison sentence for everyone. People will want to travel, you never realise how valuable something in life is until it's gone ... a lot of people are feeling that way. If it is at least managed by June/July, I wouldn't be surprised to find many try to salvage something of a summer holiday in August/September. It of course won't be 100% of what was initially planned, but those fearing blank rosters may have something to at least pay the bills and stay current in an aircraft.
Could we see a busier winter schedule from all those who didn't manage to get away in May/June? Who is to say no for sure? ... there are numerous possibilities, so far any major event has only led to great expansion post event (9/11 etc) ... why will this be any different?
Bottom line is it will recover, precisely at what point we reach pre-covid levels is anyone's guess.