Happy Monday campers,
Tomorrow will likely see the number of cases outside of China be greater than inside... probably 83,000+ tomorrow, on Wednesday we will break the 100,000 mark and in 14 days from now outside of China will have exceeded 500,000 - at that point, I'm not expecting any airlines to be flying anywhere in the world apart from domestic China / Russia and a few others.
The peak of cases will move like a barometer for each country - where it stabilises in some it will rapidly grow in others, BUT when that number reaches over 1 million cases in 19 days time on the 3rd of April I think it will dawn on most in this industry that there is no possible recovery for 2020, depending on WHEN we reach the inflection point of the virus outside of China depends when plans can be made to start re-introducing travel to some countries, however it will still take another 90 days from the date of inflection point to see a true downward curve.
In 2021 as the worst of it is over depending on if we have a vaccine produced and available and depending on if its an annual virus like the flu will depend on how airlines come back to life.
2021 will see the year of 'Flag State Carriers' coming back to life but in a completely different model and not run like Alitalia etc.
Stay safe everyone and good luck!