PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?
Old 15th Mar 2020, 05:50
  #104 (permalink)  
exfocx
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: australia
Posts: 172
Received 11 Likes on 7 Posts
733driver,

Not sure I follow your reasoning on the numbers! Lets say you have 100 units of people (actual numbers don't matter) and the known infection rate is 60%, therefore 60 units of people will be infected. Lets say the mortality rate is 5% of those KNOWN to be infected, so therefore 3 units of people will die. Now if the ACTUAL infection rate is 100% (40 units who are infected but do not test +ve) the same number of units will die (i.e. 3 units), but instead of the mortality rate being 5%, it will be 3%, BUT THE SAME NUMBER OF PEOPLE WILL DIE!

The only thing that changes in your scenario is the % numbers, actual dead, no change!
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