Originally Posted by
dr dre
Travel will resume back to normal once the northern hemisphere winter is over and the flu season ends.
Where is the evidence for
your statement? There is always a large amount of uncertainty about the the course of history in the future. Suggested reading "Fooled by Randomness" & "The Black Swan" by Nicholas N Taleb and
Exploring gambles reveals foundational difficulty behind economic theory (and a solution)
Parallel worlds branching into the future, with reality selecting one trajectory through the space of possibilities. Credit: Peters and Gell-Mann
Risk can be defined as the possibility of many possible future outcomes, of which only one will become reality. The simple fact is we just don't know how things are going to work out with this virus.
On Dec 1 2019 could anyone have predicted that 760 million people in China would be in some sort of lockdown within 3 months? Clearly the virtual shutdown for an extended period time of the Chinese economy is going to have a highly disruptive effect even if all future infections of this virus ceased tomorrow. A lot of economic damage is already baked in regardless of the future course of the virus.
Residential lockdowns of varying strictness — from checkpoints at building entrances to hard limits on going outdoors — now cover at least 760 million people in China, or more than half the country’s population, according to a New York Times analysis of government announcements in provinces and major cities. Many of these people live far from the city of Wuhan, where the virus was first reported and which the government sealed off last month.
New York Times (may be paywalled):
To Tame Coronavirus, Mao-Style Social Control Blankets China