Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel
This is NOT about Coronavirus, there is already a thread elsewhere. Not able to use JB as was a naughty boy (alledgedly).
This is about its direct impact on Air Travel.
Black Death killed between 30-60% of people in Europe when it hit over a 7 year period, it originated in China and spread across the Steppes with the invading hordes / trading that occurred then. Last year a city close to latter day Moscow was show to have been almost Ground Zero where the Black Death really took hold in a European city for the first time. Human to Human contact, poor hygiene and everything else caused it to spread throught Europe. Rats don't walk thousands of miles, people did.
Currently as the actions of BA and other airlines have shown that closing air routes may reduce the spread. Already in Wuhan they realise that 5 million people are not in the city as they already left for Chinese New Year, stats borne out by Baidu Maps (Google map equiv in China) show how people moved in the weeks preceding the shut down of Wuhan, this mirrors the spread in China.
Now instead of 2-3 years across the Steppes where the Virus mutates and changes a Virus can move from China to Europe in 12 hours. The Airline industry which has opened up connectivity for trade has also opened it up for the spread of diseases. This is both good and bad as yes people will die, but in 2014/15 29k people died in UK because of Flu.
However the spread of Virus's quicker also means the are known about, examined and actioned quicker rather than 2-3 years in mutation. Spanish flu killed over a 3 year period rather than a single year, on of my ancestors died of it and spoke with some Balkan friends recently who remember grandparents talking of 2 neighbours left of a family of 15 when it hit their village.
So the impact on Air Travel, China has already been massively impacted and likely will see a net reduction v 2019 of the people ho will fly internationally / domestically. This likewise will impact on its neighbours.
In Europe in 28 days if the virus is worse, > 1 Million people infected and 10,000 dead then Governments will need to start considering whether isolation from outsiders needs to be considered. Having 200 people sitting in an aluminium tube breathing the same air for a couple of hours will not be hygienic (it is not now).
Governments may start to take coordinated actions in shutting down air routes as a means of halting the spread of the infection.It is clear that Governments are already looking at this as a drastic measure but discommoding Sandra from her hen weekend in Prague may be least worst option.
Travel is about confidence, we saw this post 9/11 where flight bookings collapsed, Ryanair in Europe bet the farm, rolled out 1p / 1c flights, got ridiculed in the media BUT got people back onto planes in weeks. People scared but a 1p flight to Dublin is still a bargain so let's go.
A drastic action such as shutting down flights would I believe destroy the industry as confidence is ficke and would ebb away overnight likely losing 20-30 of people who currently fly. But isolation and saving thousands of lives may be least worst option for many countries.
Which airlines would be left would be anybodys guess but believe it would take Airline Industry 10 years to recover.