We probably are looking at the same data.
I have repeatedly seen claims that doubling every 2 days would be the benchmark and we are well short of that. Whether that is useful or not I don’t know but I’ll run with it. Based on 446 cases on January 21 we would expect 57000 tomorrow, if there are 40000 new cases announced tomorrow I’ll be the first to run around like a headless chicken.
10 days ago I was envisaging apocalyptic levels of contagion which so far do not seem to be playing out. Every day that goes by the scientists are working around the clock on vaccines, treatments etc.
To top it off we still have almost no transmission outside of China, including in culturally and racially similar countries. If that isn’t cause for optimism I don’t know what is.