Originally Posted by
Squawk7700
Exactly... it’s the same conditions they have been flying in for the previous 130 missions!
The point of impact appears to be significantly lower than their last observed altitude. If the fireball shown in the video is at the start of the 200 metre uphill “scrape” then it is even more puzzling.
Hmmm, I make the videographer at the 1010m contour crossing the road at 35°59.898S 149°23.113'E. This is just west of the right angle dogleg, about 1000m north of the site. The retardant run appears to be inside of the 1100m hills (~2km to the WNW) at 00:15 which are slightly below the aircraft in line of sight. Remember the camera is not level to the horizon (the camera drops during the pan and the crash site is uphill of the videographer ). I'd guess the aircraft at 00:15 is at approx 1100m (The same height as the hills, but you're slightly looking "up" at them) making the aircraft appear higher. Impact was at 1050m or less. If these assumptions are correct the aircraft descended at the most 150 feet in the last 18 seconds m (<50fpm) covering ~0.75nm = 150kts.
The video stops - 2 seconds after the fire is visible - probably just before the sound reaches it (if the northerly let it travel that far) which would have been at about 3 seconds.
RIP