PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - GT says fatal 737 MAX crashes caused by 'incompetent crew.'
Old 26th Jan 2020, 20:12
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know_nothing_PPL
 
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Originally Posted by retired guy
Hi curtain twitcher
Another slant
The sample rate for Max is very small outside USA. So percentage crash rates are not comparable. How did the USA rate compare? What was the max accident rate per million USA departures where most of The flying took place?
The 737 100/200 had a poor start like the 727. Both went on to be a success.
Since 1997 you say. Well what has been the biggest change since then? It’s not MCAS . It’s the change in training requirements. In my view. But I do wear glasses.
all the best and thanks for your own viewpoint which I accept is a valuable to as mine is to me
R Guy
The accident proportions for Boeing 737-600/700/800/900 and the Boeing 737 Max of 0.06 and 3,08 per million flights are different on the 0.000000000000001 level (two-tailed z-test for two proportions). That means that in saying the MAX is unsafer than the MAX, your risk to be wrong is 1:1000000000000000. I have never before seen such a significance level.

To answer your question: let's bend statistics and assume that 10% of the MAX and 30% of the 737-600/700/800/900 flights took place outside the US and all fatal MAX crashes and 50% of the pre-MAX fatal crashes were outside the US. The incredibly high significance level remains about the same. In other words, even outside the "well-trained-western-pilots"-US there is absolutely no uncertainty that the MAX has a way higher fatal accident rate.

Last edited by know_nothing_PPL; 26th Jan 2020 at 21:39.
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