[QUOTE=BDAttitude;10669672]We haven‘t seen the updated version life, have you? Just vapour ware. Can‘t see why past tense should be mandatory.[/QUOTE
HI BD
I think the three basic fixes to MCAS were developed long ago. It’s just that loss of confidence in FAA is slowing down approval. Past tense is appropriate because by the time it’s recertified, which it will be, the Max Will be the most tested airplane ever- maybe more than Concorde. You have no evidence that it’s “vapour ware”- apart from a hunch?
here is some well reasoned commentary from a couple of sources. Looks good to me.Boeing’s worst ever nightmare just got even worse with an announcement from the company yesterday that its own best estimates for ungrounding of the plane by the FAA have been shifted back to mid-2020.
Updating 737 MAX customers and the investment community yesterday Boeing said that:
“We are informing our customers and suppliers that we are currently estimating that the ungrounding of the 737 MAX will begin during mid-2020. This updated estimate is informed by our experience to date with the certification process. It is subject to our ongoing attempts to address known schedule risks and further developments that may arise in connection with the certification process. It also accounts for the rigorous scrutiny that regulatory authorities are rightly applying at every step of their review of the 737 MAX's flight control system and the Joint Operations Evaluation Board process which determines pilot training requirements.
Returning the MAX safely to service is our number one priority, and we are confident that will happen. We acknowledge and regret the continued difficulties that the grounding of the 737 MAX has presented to our customers, our regulators, our suppliers, and the flying public. We will provide additional information about our efforts to safely return the 737 MAX to service in connection with our quarterly financial disclosures next week”.
Having fallen 5.5% on the back of media reports Boeing shares were suspended ahead of the formal announcement. With close to 5,000 737 MAX planes ordered and so far, 387 of the grounded planes delivered to airline customers and maybe close to 400 currently stored awaiting delivery the next six months will be crucial to Boeing as they also will to airline customers that had hoped the aircraft would have been ungrounded this month and to those that had planned on receiving new aircraft.
In respect of ungrounding the airplane Boeing remains in the hands of the FAA just as it also does internationally with other global regulators that have followed suit in grounding the airplane. Additional software related issues announced by the company earlier this month relating to the power-up monitoring function that verifies some system monitors are operating correctly will likely be a partial cause of the additional delay in ungrounding but with the FAA having been found wanting in the manner in which certification of the 737 MAX was conducted there can be little doubt that regulators are not prepared to allow the aircraft to fly again until they are satisfied on each and every issue involved including airline pilot training is deemed perfect.
Boeing has itself worked extremely hard to ensure that when the 737 MAX is allowed to return to airline service that each and every issue has been resolved. The change in CEO from Dennis Muilenburg to David Calhoun has had a dramatic impact right across the company and led to some radical changes. This is very evident in the more honest, open and transparent manner in which that Boeing is keeping its customers, investors and airline community involved. There may of course be other issues that we may never know about and that relate to how the two tragic incidents occurred – this including possibilities of incorrect pilot operation in regard of the MCAS flight control system that is judged to be the main issue behind both incidents. But the point is that Boeing has put its hands up, taken full responsibility for what occurred and to ensure that when the 737 MAX flies again it will begin the long process of earning a reputation of being a very safe plane.
Speculation as the whether the 737 MAX will fly again is nonsense – it will and my personal view is that while the next couple of years are going to be tough as Boeing reverses the negative profile that has been attached to 737 MAX since the grounding. Boeing has taken all the many negative aspects surrounding the 737 MAX on the chin and it is in my view nonsense to suggest that it might walk away from 737 MAX and, as I heard suggested earlier today, possibly move back to producing 737-800’s.
The cost of 737 MAX accidents and subsequent grounding has been put at around $9.2 billion so far. Undoubtedly this will rise further still in the months ahead. Nevertheless, Boeing is a strong company and it will in my view pull through this crisis in its affairs albeit that there remain many bumps for the company over the next year.
In respect of order Boeing has said that number of 737 MAX planes ordered since the grounding roughly match the number of cancellations received. Airlines continue to have confidence that together Boeing and the FAA regulators will get this right and that 737 MAX will have a good future.
Getting the 737 MAX airplane back in the air is not just an issue for Boeing but also one for its competitors. Growth this year will have been negatively impacted by the 737 MAX grounding and while it is only Boeing’s reputation that has suffered, I venture to suggest that the whole industry has suffered as a result.
As to speculation as to whether Boeing might begin the process of designing a replacement aircraft, for the 737 MAX soon, I would say that this is no more likely today than it was two years ago. 737 MAX just as the main and hugely successful Airbus A320 NEO family of aircraft have evolved from their predecessor aircraft. To design, research, develop and build a completely new aircraft and take it through to certification is a ten-year process. However, I venture to suggest that the next generation single aisle/ narrow body replacements for 737 MAX and the highly successful competing Airbus A320 NEO family of aircraft will be very different from those that we fly in today.
Boeing will not allow itself to fall behind its competitors but I do not believe that it is ready to move into a single aisle replacement process yet. The commercial aircraft industry isn’t built like any other – new aircraft today have to be designed to accommodate not only the needs of the airline industry customer, technological and potential cost advantage but in this day and age, acceptance of greatly increased environmental pressures placed on the manufacturers and which translates to achievement of greatly improved fuel efficiency and ultimately, making greater use of non-fossil fuels.
The bottom line is that the next generation of commercial aircraft will be very different from those of today and it just maybe that while the commercial aircraft industry will continue to grow as those continents such as Africa and South America that have not enjoyed the benefits that we have provide new areas of growth whilst those of us in mature markets place even greater emphasis on environmental issues and cost. Whatever, just as Airbus undoubtedly will, I also believe that when it has moved through this dreadful crisis in its affairs, Boeing will also prosper.