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Old 10th Jan 2020, 19:28
  #349 (permalink)  
Coborn C6
 
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Originally Posted by andrasz
This is compounded by the fact that any admission and release of details would give away much information about the (dis)functionality of the Iranian chain of command, which is understandably the last thing they would want to do at the moment.
As ever you make some wise observations andrasz. I think the one I've quoted above might have a significant impact on this accident investigation and the establishment of the truth.

If this was a shoot down and we follow the causal chain of this event back far enough, we are talking about a situation in which certain countries didn't want Iran to get hold of nuclear weapons, that led to tension in which a mistake might have been made.

The problem for those countries is how to stop Iran, especially when several of them have nuclear weapons themselves and there are others in the international community sympathetic to the idea that if one country has them then they don't have the right to stop others doing the same.

If the investigation into this accident concludes that it was the result of a missile, and the itchy/clumsy finger that pushed the button did so as a result of the dysfunctionality you refer to, then it might pose the question as to what might have happened if the missile had been a nuclear armed one and the accidental target was Israel or Saudi Arabia, rather than a 737.

The Iranian authorities are going to have to demonstrate (via the accident investigation if possible) that they are fully in control of all their weapon systems and they never have accidents. Otherwise the number of countries lining up to say Iran should never have nukes is only going to increase. In a strange way this terrible tragedy has the potential to give Trump a kind of victory after all.

If I'm right in linking these issues then it means the accident investigation is going to be difficult and very, very protracted.
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